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Mugihe banki nkuru yisi igabanya ubukana bwegereje, ifaranga mubukungu bukomeye rigenda risubira inyuma kugera kuntego.
Icyakora, ihungabana riherutse kuba mu nyanja itukura ryongeye kubyutsa impungenge z’uko ibintu bya geopolitike byagize uruhare runini mu kuzamura ibiciro kuva mu mwaka ushize, kandi izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ubwikorezi hamwe n’ibicuruzwa bitangwa n’ibicuruzwa bishobora kongera guhinduka icyiciro gishya cy’abashoramari.Muri 2024, isi izatangira umwaka wingenzi wamatora, ibintu byateganijwe ko bizagaragara neza, bizongera guhinduka?

Ibiciro by'imizigo byakira cyane guhagarika inyanja Itukura
Ibitero byagabwe na Houthis ya Yemeni ku mato anyura muri koridor yo mu nyanja itukura-Suez yiyongereye kuva mu ntangiriro z'uku kwezi.Inzira igizwe na 12 ku ijana by'ubucuruzi ku isi, ubusanzwe yohereza ibicuruzwa muri Aziya ku byambu by'i Burayi no mu burasirazuba bwa Amerika.
Ibigo bitwara ibicuruzwa birahatirwa kuyobya.Umubare w'amato ya kontineri yageze mu kigobe cya Aden yagabanutseho 82 ku ijana mu cyumweru gishize ugereranije n'igice cya mbere cy'uku kwezi, nk'uko imibare yatangajwe na Clarkson Research Services ibitangaza.Mbere, litiro miliyoni 8.8 za peteroli na toni zigera kuri miliyoni 380 z'imizigo byanyuraga muri buri munsi, ibyo bikaba bitwara hafi kimwe cya gatatu cy’ibicuruzwa ku isi.
Kuzenguruka kuri Cape of Byiringiro, byongerwaho ibirometero 3.000 na 3.500 bikongeraho iminsi 10 kugeza 14, byatumye ibiciro ku nzira zimwe na zimwe za Aziya bigera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu myaka hafi itatu ishize mu cyumweru gishize.Igihangange cyo gutwara ibicuruzwa Maersk cyatangaje amadorari 700 y’inyongera ku kintu gisanzwe gifite metero 20 ku murongo w’ibihugu by’i Burayi, gikubiyemo amadorari 200 y’inyongera (TDS) hamwe n’inyongera y’amadorari 500 (PSS).Ibindi bigo byinshi byohereza ibicuruzwa byakurikiranye.
Igipimo kinini cy’imizigo gishobora kugira ingaruka ku guta agaciro.Ati: “Ibiciro by'imizigo bizaba birenze ibyo byari byateganijwe ku bohereza ibicuruzwa ndetse n'abaguzi, kandi ibyo bizageza ryari kugeza ku biciro biri hejuru?”nk'uko byatangajwe na Rico Luman, impuguke mu by'ubukungu muri ING, mu nyandiko.
Impuguke nyinshi mu bijyanye n’ibikoresho ziteganya ko inzira y’inyanja Itukura imaze kugira ingaruka mu gihe kirenga ukwezi, urwego rutanga isoko ruzumva igitutu cy’ifaranga, hanyuma amaherezo rikorera umutwaro w’abaguzi, bivuze ko Uburayi bushobora kwibasirwa kurusha Amerika. .Ibikoresho byo muri Suwede hamwe n’umucuruzi wo mu rugo IKEA yihanangirije ko ikibazo cya Canal ya Suez cyatera ubukererwe kandi bikagabanya kuboneka ku bicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe bya IKEA.
Isoko riracyareba ibyagezweho mubihe byumutekano bikikije inzira.Mbere, Amerika yatangaje ko hashyizweho ihuriro ry’abaherekeza riharanira umutekano w’amato.Nyuma Maersk yasohoye itangazo avuga ko yiteguye gusubukura ubwikorezi mu nyanja Itukura.Ati: "Ubu turi gukora gahunda yo kubona amato ya mbere anyuze muri iyi nzira vuba bishoboka."Mu kubikora, ni ngombwa kandi kurinda umutekano w'abakozi bacu. ”
Kuri uyu wa mbere, aya makuru yatumye igabanuka rikabije ry’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu Burayi.Kugeza igihe cyo gutangaza amakuru, urubuga rwemewe rwa Maersk ntirwatangaje itangazo ryemewe ku bijyanye no gusubukura inzira.
Umwaka w’amatora arenze uzana gushidikanya
Inyuma y’ibibazo byo mu nyanja Itukura, ni nacyo kimenyetso cy’icyiciro gishya cyo kwiyongera kwa geopolitiki.
Abahutu kandi ngo baribasiye amato muri kariya gace mbere.Ariko ibitero byariyongereye kuva amakimbirane yatangira.Uyu mutwe wavuze ko uzatera ubwato ubwo ari bwo bwose bwizera ko bwerekeza cyangwa buva muri Isiraheli.
Mu mpera z'icyumweru gishize amakimbirane yakomeje kuba mwinshi mu nyanja Itukura.Ikamyo y’imiti y’ibendera rya Noruveje yatangaje ko yabuze gato na drone y’igitero, mu gihe tanker yari ifite ibendera ry’Ubuhinde yagonzwe, nubwo nta muntu wakomeretse.Ubuyobozi bukuru bwa Amerika bwabivuze.Ibyabaye ni ibitero bya 14 na 15 byibasiye ubwikorezi bw’ubucuruzi kuva ku ya 17 Ukwakira, mu gihe amato y’intambara yo muri Amerika yarashe drone enye.
Muri icyo gihe, Irani na Amerika, Isiraheli mu karere ku kibazo cy '“imvugo” na byo byatumye isi yo hanze ihangayikishwa n’imiterere y’umwimerere yabaye mu burasirazuba bwo hagati bizarushaho kwiyongera.
Mubyukuri, 2024 iri imbere izaba "umwaka w’amatora", aho amatora menshi ku isi, harimo Irani, Ubuhinde, Uburusiya n’ibindi byibandwaho, kandi amatora yo muri Amerika arahangayikishijwe cyane.Guhuza amakimbirane yo mu karere no kuzamuka kw’iburyo-bwo gukunda igihugu by’igihugu nabyo byatumye ingaruka za geopolitike zidateganijwe.
Nk’impamvu ikomeye y’iki cyiciro cy’izamuka ry’inyungu za banki nkuru y’isi ku isi, ifaranga ry’ingufu riterwa n’izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli na peteroli ku isi nyuma y’uko ibintu byifashe muri Ukraine ntibishobora kwirengagizwa, ndetse n’ingaruka ziterwa na geopolitiki ku isoko urunigi kandi rwateje ibiciro byo gukora igihe kinini.Noneho ibicu birashobora kugaruka.Banki ya Danske yavuze muri raporo yoherereje umunyamakuru wa mbere w’imari ko 2024 Gicurasi ishobora kuzaba amazi mu ntambara yo mu Burusiya na Ukraine, bityo bikaba ngombwa ko twita ku kumenya niba Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika n’inteko ishinga amategeko y’uburayi inkunga ya gisirikare ya Ukraine izahinduka, kandi Amatora yo muri Amerika arashobora kandi guteza umutekano muke mukarere ka Aziya-pasifika.
Jim O'Neil wahoze ari impuguke mu by'ubukungu muri Goldman Sachs akaba n’umuyobozi w’imicungire y’umutungo wa Goldman, aherutse kuvuga ku bijyanye n’ifaranga ry’umwaka utaha, Jim O'Neil yagize ati: 'Ubunararibonye mu myaka mike ishize bwerekana ko ibiciro bishobora guterwa cyane no kutamenya neza no kutamenyekana.'
Muri ubwo buryo, Umuyobozi mukuru wa UBS, Sergio Ermotti, yavuze ko atizera ko banki nkuru zifite ifaranga rigenzurwa.Hagati muri uku kwezi yanditse ati: "umuntu ntagomba kugerageza guhanura amezi make ari imbere - ntibishoboka."Inzira isa nkaho ari nziza, ariko tugomba kureba niba ibi bizakomeza.Niba ifaranga mu bukungu bwose bukomeye ryegereye intego ya 2 ku ijana, politiki ya banki nkuru irashobora koroshya bimwe.Muri ibi bidukikije, ni ngombwa guhinduka. ”

Inkomoko: Internet