Imiterere y'Ubucuruzi | Kubara Izamuka ry'Imisoro! Ese Ikiguzi cy'Ubudodo bw'Ubushinwa bwoherezwa muri Amerika kizazamuka 100% guhera ku ya 1 Ugushyingo?

Ku ya 10 Ukwakira (ku isaha yo mu gace), Perezida wa Amerika Trump yatangaje politiki ikomeye: guhera ku ya 1 Ugushyingo, hazashyirwaho indi misoro 100% ku bicuruzwa byose biva mu Bushinwa byinjijwe mu mahanga hiyongereyeho imisoro isanzweho, hamwe n’ibicuruzwa by’imyenda nk’ubudodo nta kurobanura. Hamwe n’imisoro iriho mu gice cya 301, igipimo cy’umusoro rusange ku bicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by’ubudodo cyarenze 50%, bikuba kabiri ikiguzi cy’ibigo byohereza muri Amerika.

Dukurikije imibare y’inganda, niba ibyo Amerika yaguze ku rugero runini, bizagira ingaruka kuri 2.5% by’amafaranga yose yinjira mu nganda z’ubudodo zo mu gihugu cy’Ubushinwa, kandi ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu bito n’ibiciriritse bushobora guhura n’ikibazo cyo guhagarikwa.

Iyi politiki yanakuruye ibiganiro bikomeye hagati y’abakoresha interineti. Abantu benshi bavuze mu buryo bweruye ko “Amerika iteza ibibazo bitandukanye mu Bushinwa ariko ntishobora kwihanganira ingamba zo kugabanya imitungo ziturutse ku bandi.” Ku bagurisha ibicuruzwa bambuka imipaka, ihindagurika rikomeye ry’imisoro ryabaye ikintu gisanzwe, bituma byihutirwa kwagura amasoko atandukanye no kwirinda ingaruka zimwe.

Ese Trump yaba ari umuntu ukomeye kuri iyi nshuro?

Raporo ya The New York Times yo ku wa 10 yagaragaje ko igipimo cy’amahoro cya Amerika ku bicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa kigeze kuri 30%, kandi ku bicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe, kiri hejuru kurushaho. Icyo gikorwa cya Trump kizamura imisoro ku bicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa ikagera ku kigero cya 130%, bigaragaza ko hari ukwiyongera gukomeye kw’ibibazo hagati y’ibihugu bibiri bikomeye ku isi mu bukungu. Mu ntangiriro z’uyu mwaka, nyuma y’izamuka ry’imisoro ku ruhande rwa Amerika inshuro nyinshi, urwego rw’amahoro rwashyizweho ku Bushinwa rwari rugeze kuri 145%, hafi ya byose byatumye ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu byombi buhagarara. Nyuma, Ubushinwa na Amerika byageze ku masezerano yo guhagarika imisoro kugira ngo biteze imbere ibiganiro by’ubucuruzi, buhoro buhoro bigabanyije imisoro ikagera kuri 30%. Kongera gushyira mu bikorwa ikibazo cy’imisoro ku ruhande rwa Amerika kuri iyi nshuro bizasenya ibyagezweho bikomeye byabonetse binyuze mu biganiro byinshi by’ubukungu n’ubucuruzi hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika.

Isi yose yabonye ko ingaruka mbi zo guhagarika guverinoma ya Amerika muri iki gihe zikomeje kugaragara, kandi Trump, wamaze kurengerwa n'ibitero, aherutse kunanirwa mu kugerageza kwe kubona igihembo cy'amahoro cya Nobel. Bamwe mu basesenguzi b'itangazamakuru bo muri Amerika bavuze ko hagati y'ibibazo by'imbere mu gihugu n'ibyo hanze ndetse no kutanyurwa gukabije, igikorwa cya Trump cyo kugaragaza uburakari bwe ku mategeko mashya y'Ubushinwa gishobora no kuba ari ukugerageza kuyobya ibitekerezo by'imbere mu gihugu.

Ariko, ikibazo gitunguranye cyo kuzamura igipimo cy’imisoro ku Bushinwa ku kigero cya 100% cyatumye ibitekerezo bya rubanda bya Amerika bisa nkaho "bidashoboka." Niba uyu mubare usa n'uwasazi koko uzashyirwa mu bikorwa cyangwa niba ari indi nzira isanzwe ya Trump yo kuganira byabaye intandaro y'impaka mu mpande zose.

Kuva umunsi wabanjirije uwo kugeza umunsi Trump yatangaje ko imisoro izamurwa, Ubushinwa bwari bwashyizeho ingamba ebyiri zo guhangana n’ikibazo cy’ubucuruzi cya Amerika.

Ku ya 9 Ukwakira, Minisiteri y'Ubucuruzi y'Ubushinwa yasohoye itangazo, ritakomeje gusa kugenzura ibicuruzwa by'ibanze by'ubutaka budasanzwe byoherezwa mu mahanga, ahubwo ryanashyizemo ikoranabuhanga ryo gucukura no gutunganya ubutaka budasanzwe hamwe n'ibikoresho by'ingenzi mu rwego rwo kubuza ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku nshuro ya mbere. Kubera ko ubutaka budasanzwe ari ibikoresho by'ingenzi mu bijyanye n'inganda zikora ibintu mu buryo bw'ubwenge n'ingufu nshya, iyi ngamba izagira ingaruka zitaziguye ku ituze ry'inganda n'urusobe rw'ibicuruzwa muri Amerika.

Ku ya 10 Ukwakira, Minisiteri y’Ubwikorezi y’Ubushinwa yatangaje icyarimwe ko guhera ku ya 14 Ukwakira, hazabaho andi mafaranga yo kwishyura ku bwato bw’amato ya Amerika yinjira mu byambu by’Ubushinwa, aho ayo mafaranga azatangwa hakurikijwe ayo Amerika yashyizeho mbere ku bwato bw’Ubushinwa. Amakuru agaragaza ko ubucuruzi bwo mu mazi hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika bungana na 70% by’ubucuruzi bwose hagati y’ibihugu byombi. Iyi ngamba izongera ikiguzi cy’amasosiyete yo mu mazi yo muri Amerika, ikayahatira kongera gusuzuma ikiguzi cy’ibikoresho byo mu bucuruzi n’Ubushinwa, no gufasha ibigo byohereza ibicuruzwa mu gihugu imbere kugira imbaraga zo kubyungukiramo.

Bitewe n’inzitizi z’imisoro ku isoko rya Amerika, amasoko arimo kuzamuka nka Amerika y’Epfo na Afurika arimo kuba "ahantu heza ho guhungira" ibigo by’ubudodo. Amakuru agaragaza ko icyifuzo cy’inganda zo muri Brezili ziboha ubudodo mu Bushinwa zikora imigozi ya vortex na air-jet cyazamutseho 12% buri mwaka, kandi ko ubucuruzi bw’imyenda yo mu rugo muri Argentine bushingiye ku budodo bw’Abashinwa burenga 60%. Shandong Weiqiao yitabiriye byihutirwa imurikagurisha rya GTS ry’imyenda rya Brezili kandi yageze ku giciro cya miliyoni 2 z’amadolari y’Amerika ku munsi wa mbere. “Abakiriya bo muri Amerika y’Epfo baha agaciro cyane ikiguzi, kandi igiciro cy’ubudodo bwacu kuri toni kiri hasi ho 8% ugereranyije n’icy’ibicuruzwa bisa nabyo biva mu Buhinde, ari na yo nyungu yacu nyamukuru.”

Amasoko ari ku nkengero za "Belt and Road" no mu bihugu bigize RCEP na yo afite ubushobozi bukomeye. Mu gice cya mbere cya 2025, ibicuruzwa by'ubudodo by'Ubushinwa byoherezwaga muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba byiyongereyeho 9.3%. Muri gahunda ya RCEP, 82% by'ibyiciro by'ubudodo bishobora kugabanyirizwa imisoro cyangwa bigasonerwa. Nyuma y'uko ibigo bisabye ibyemezo by'umwimerere, umusoro ku bicuruzwa byinjizwa muri Kamboje ushobora kugabanuka buhoro buhoro kuva kuri 15% ukagera kuri zeru, bikazamura cyane ipiganwa ku isoko.

2. Iterambere ry'ibicuruzwa: Ubudodo bw'agaciro gakomeye burwanya ibyago

Mu mahugurwa yo gukora, imirongo y’umusaruro w’ubudodo burwanya bagiteri n’ubukonje hamwe n’ubudodo butwara ubushyuhe bwa graphene ikora ku buryo bwuzuye. Ubwo bwoko bw’ubudodo bufite imbogamizi zikomeye mu ikoranabuhanga, kandi nubwo igiciro cyaba cyarahinduwe bitewe n’imisoro, abakiriya bo muri Amerika bashobora kwemera ko ibiciro bizazamuka kugeza kuri 30%. Mu gihe kizaza, ishoramari ryinshi mu bushakashatsi no mu iterambere mu bikoresho by’ubudodo ku myenda yo hanze n’imyenda yo kwa muganga rizaba "igihome" cy’ibigo birwanya ingaruka z’imisoro.

Impinduka mu nganda nazo zishimangira iki cyerekezo. Mu 2025, icyifuzo cy’ubudodo butagira ingaruka ku bidukikije ku isi kiziyongeraho 15%, kandi umwanya w’ubudodo bw’ubwenge n’ubudodo bushobora kongera gukoreshwa ni inshuro 2-3 ugereranyije n’ubw’ibicuruzwa bisanzwe. Biteganijwe ko isoko ry’ubudodo bugezweho rizagera kuri 35% mu 2030, kandi kuvugurura ikoranabuhanga byabaye ingenzi ku bigo bihura n’ingorane.

Hari ibigo bimwe na bimwe bihitamo kunyura muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba kugira ngo bigabanye ikiguzi cy'imisoro, ariko ingaruka zo kubahiriza amategeko ntizirengagizwa. Gasutamo ya Amerika yigeze kwemeza ko ikigo cy'ubudodo muri Zhejiang "gikomoka mu Bushinwa" kuko cyakoraga gusa ubucuruzi bwo gukata no kudoda muri Kamboje kidakoresheje uburyo bwo gukora, bigatuma imisoro yiyongera ku kigero cya 27.5 ku ijana. Nyuma yo gukosora, ikigo cyimuriye igikorwa cyo kuboha ubudodo mu gace kacyo, kandi hamwe n'icyemezo cy'umwimerere cya Kamboje cyujuje ibisabwa, igipimo cy'umusoro cyagabanutse kigera kuri 25.6%.

Impuguke mu nganda zagaragaje ko “ikoranabuhanga rya Blockchain riri gukemura ikibazo cyo gukurikirana uburyo ibicuruzwa bitangwa.” Gushyira ibikoresho kuri urwo ruhererekane kugira ngo berekane inzira yose yo gukora mu gihe nyacyo, bishobora kwirindwa ku buryo bufatika. Kuri ubu, ibigo 6 bikomeye byo muri Fujian byabonye uburyo bwo gucunga ibicuruzwa mu buryo bufatika.

Nubwo isoko rya Amerika ririmo guhura n’ibibazo, ubushobozi rusange bw’isoko ry’ubudodo ku isi buracyahari. Ingano y’isoko ry’ubudodo ku isi izagera kuri miliyari 43 z’amadolari mu 2025, kandi imiterere aho Aziya ingana na 60% ntirahinduka. Inama y’Igihugu y’Ubushinwa ishinzwe imyenda n’imyambaro irasaba ko ibigo bishyiraho imiterere y’imirongo ibiri: mu gihugu, gusuzuma ibintu bitandukanye nk’imyenda ya siporo n’imyenda yo kwa muganga kugira ngo bigere ku byifuzo by’abaguzi bo mu gihugu; ku rwego mpuzamahanga, gukoresha ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki bwambukiranya imipaka kugira ngo hubakwe ibirango bya DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) kandi bigere ku bakiriya bo mu mahanga mu buryo butaziguye.

“Imisoro ihatira kuvugurura inganda ishobora kuba atari ikintu kibi,” nk'uko byatangajwe n'abasesenguzi bo mu buyobozi bukuru bw'imisoro. Mu bihembwe bitatu bya mbere bya 2025, umubare w'abasaba patenti mu gihugu ku budodo bw'ubwenge wiyongereyeho 47% uko umwaka utashye. “Ubushobozi bw'inganda bushyigikira ubudodo bw'Abashinwa buracyari inyungu nyamukuru Aziya y'Amajyepfo idashobora gusimbuza. Igihe cyose habonetse icyerekezo gikwiye, amahirwe mashya ashobora gufatwa mu gihe ibintu bihinduka.”